Amongst all of the turmoil around our club, its near impossible to distinguish between facts and rumours, let alone work out where the responsibility lies and hence what the solution is.
Imho there are a few indisputable facts
1. FACT Even on recent results, we still punch above our weight. And AW should be credited with it.
Lots of stats show that by most objective measures (except for perhaps our expectations) we outperform - turnover, balance sheet, investment in squad, fan base etc. And especially given that many of these measures are high, and only inflated due to the success AW has brought us. Relative to our heyday of course we are disappointed, even more so as it seems as though if a few small areas were addressed we could be contenders again. Nevertheless, even our most recent 'disappointing' results of top 4 and CPL are thanks to AW punching above our weight. That doesnt necessarily mean AW is the manager to take us forward (although I believe he is) or that we couldnt/shouldnt do better, just that we are still over-performing.
2. FACT AW is brilliant and completely dedicated but not faultless
Per above - we still punch above our weight, albeit not heavy weight. Moreover few would suggest that our historic achievements under his realm were anything other than spectacular. By all reports, he lives and breathes AFC. The commitment hasnt recently been in evidence in the outcome - neither pitch results not transfer dealings but we have to presume it isnt for lack of effort. Perhaps misguided or inexpert effort, but the will is there. Indisputably. Moreover, in many areas, even if the result is the wrong one, we dont and cant know the internal machinations - why a player didnt player, a tactic used, a player sold etc. Perhaps AW was responsible, perhaps he wasnt or there's a valid explanation. However there are some areas where it was clearly wrong, with foresight as well as hindsight and it was entirely within AWs' control. Our keeper situation is just one example. To have persisted for so long with Manuel Almunia and then Fabianski, despite clear evidence of underperformance and points dropped over months and then years, was absurd.
3. FACT AFC Management have been grossly incompetent in managing player contracts.
There are undoubtedly many reasons as to how we got into a situation where top players were able to leave on free Bosmans or get into the final 12 months of their contract but none are valid excuses - Clichy? Nasri? (and previously several others) There is simply no excuse to allow a perishing asset to whittle down the clock to the last 12 months when leverage shifts to the player. Players' expressed intent, negotiations started, ability not yet proven etc none are reasons for not being on the front foot and ensure players are bound by long enough contracts to control retention/selling. If a new contract cant be agreed long in advance of the 12 month marker they should be sold whilst the club has leverage. Baffling and inexcusable that we are religious about length of contract of players over 30 yrs old but not about contract term. Dont know if responsibility lies with AW, the board, or someone else. Certainly it ultimately sits with Ivan Gazidis, as CEO. They owe shareholders an apology.
4. FACT The lack of quality signings is a function of an internal, club issue and not the market.
We have no idea what the truth is behind the lack of signings. The same-old-same-old defensive statements are rolled out each year - I hope we dont really have a PR department it would be much cheaper to have an auto-generator for quotes.
- "we will only buy if we can find someone who adds something new"
- "we have a large transfer kitty if we find the right player"
- "we are only 1-2 players short"
- "X signing a new contract is like a new player"
- " we cant compete with the inflated prices X is willing to pay"
- "we have a great young squad who have matured, we need patience"
Of course the market is inflated, but throughout AWs tenure other clubs have had more firepower than us. Perhaps there are more now than ever but despite that there are plenty of examples of top players being bought/sold for 'reasonable' sums to clubs other than the nouveau riche. Moreover, we have benefactors with deep pockets. So the only argument to not pay 'inflated prices' is if we cant get a return - either with improved results or resale value. I havent seen any analysis that suggests the larger transfers arent good value - as with all transfers some are and some arent. Even if the argument that deep pocket funds are distorting the market, they are only doing so for a limited number of players (5-6 such clubs, who make 3-4 large signings a season, that's at most 24 players 'out of reach' which leaves plenty in reach). Not a fact, but a hypothesis, I believe our inability to sign is due to
(A) Internal disagreement.
Interesting reports (albeit denied) that board and AW arent perfectly aligned buying. Whether its due to - size of transfer kitty? wage structure? risk attitude? Dont know but there is a clear inability to pull the trigger when finally there is a top player in our sights. Moreover, it cant be a function of new owners as this issue has survived different board make-ups, different shareholders & now different owners. Further evidence, is AW earlier in the summer saying we cant claim to be a big club if we lose both Fabregas and Nasri, a pretty clear shot over the board's bow, or at the very least evidence the decision to cash in wasnt his.
(B) Nickle and diming attitude.
Cant prove anything but we give impression of watching the pennies not the pounds. Players who could have been signed had we stretched a little. Players who could have been retained and we stretched a little. Waiting until the final 24 hours to back buyers up against a deadline and in the hope they'll feel the pressure more than us. Nothing wrong with strong financial discipline and brinkmanship if you play poker well and end up winning more hands than you lose or if the consequences of not buying/retaining are less than the potential gain/saving. But it isnt. If the numbers often quoted are even in the right ballpark, we are nickle-diming on terms but the bigger loser long term. Its a false economy. How much more could we have won or if sold, obtained for Nasri if he was under contract? How much is risk of not qualifying for CPL this yr or next worth in UEFA funds and in not being able to attract CPL-hungry talent?
(C) Lack of world class deal do-ers/structuring.
There's a strong correlation between our ability to 'trade' well and David Dein being at the club and working the transfer market.
